Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (4 of 5 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: May 27, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $284.3K

Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?

Q: How did 'Will "The Mandalorian and Grogu" 4-day Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 92m?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on May 27, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · MAY 27

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 4 of 5 models agreed with MODERATE conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

MODERATE RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

4 of 5 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	2c	96%
Compound Signal	YES	52c	4%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	27c	65%
Gemini Flash	NO	45c	65%
Kimi Macro	NO	41c	65%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 33c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

2 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 2 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 72c–73c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x44c1..c1	MM	NO	$10.9K	+23%
This Market Entered at 73c → now 50c (+23%), $10.9K on NO Activity · 1 event · May 22 DatePositionAmountTotal May 22BUYNO73+$8,843$8,844 Realized— Unrealized+$2,053 Total Profit+$2,053 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1694) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xe25b..1b	MM	NO	$3.7K	+18%
This Market Entered at 72c → now 50c (+18%), $3.7K on NO Activity · 3 events · May 18 → May 23 DatePositionAmountTotal May 18BUYNO76+$205$205 May 21BUYNO71+$2,778$2,970 May 23BUYNO96+$112$4,115 Realized— Unrealized+$749 Total Profit+$749 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1138) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

100% of Tracked NO Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$5,589 on $14.6K capital deployed (avg +38.2%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

100% in profit

YES positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	10c	$284.3K	0c
AI Consensus	33c	—	✓ matched

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