AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 25c |
50%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 7c |
82%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 6c |
85%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 15c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 20c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 6c |
94%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 12c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet established a NO position at 90c — well above current 6c — signaling early conviction that Minnesota would not capture the Cup. Smart money positioning is unilaterally bearish with zero YES exposure, consistent with the structural reality of a single-team championship market and reinforcing continued downside drift toward 0c resolution.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x6a72..ee | MM | NO | $34.3K | +5% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$3,851 on $34.3K capital deployed (avg +11.2%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $9.6M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 12c | — | ✓ matched |