Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO but the market resolved YES. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: Jun 14, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $30.6M

Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?

Q: How did 'Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on Jun 14, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · JUN 14

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO (6 of 6 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved YES at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

5 of 5 Models Agreed: YES — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	85c	70%
Compound Signal	YES	68c	36%
Claude Analysis	YES	92c	85%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	85c	72%
Kimi Macro	YES	81c	76%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 82c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

1 of 5 Wallets Is Smart Money

Smart money is decisively long Knicks at 81c, with the deepest YES entries near 5c signaling a thesis held for months and confirmed as the team's path firmed up. The absence of profitable NO positioning means tracked wallets see no asymmetric fade here — the directional read is continuation toward resolution, not mean reversion.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x1bc6..36	Smart	YES	$2.1K	+9%
This Market Entered at 74c → now 50c (+9%), $2.1K on YES Activity · 2 events · May 26 → Jun 06 DatePositionAmountTotal May 26BUYYES29+$99$99 Jun 06BUYYES81+$1,817$2,095 Realized— Unrealized+$192 Total Profit+$192 Wallet Type High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 558 resolved bets. Agrees with consensus.
0x011f..22	Retail	YES	$20.2K	+112%
This Market Entered at 5c → now 50c (+112%), $20.2K on YES Activity · 4 events · Jul 18 → Jun 14 DatePositionAmountTotal Jul 18BUYYES7+$852$852 Apr 21BUYYES3+$338$691 May 19BUYYES14+$123$3,577 Jun 14SELLYES80−$1,600$18,133 Realized+$1,494 Unrealized+$18,864 Total Profit+$20,358 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 744 trades).
0xd1ed..cb	Retail	NO	$17.1K	-24%
This Market Entered at 21c → now 50c (-24%), $17.1K on NO Activity · 5 events · Jun 06 → Jun 13 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 06BUYNO26+$12$12 Jun 09BUYNO25+$311$322 Jun 11BUYNO43+$4,602$5,169 Jun 13BUYNO18+$14,764$16,914 Jun 13SELLNO18−$9,509$7,450 Realized−$1,530 Unrealized−$2,575 Total Profit−$4,105 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 474 trades).
0xa52b..80	MM	YES	$9.5K	—
This Market Entered at 82c, $9.5K on YES Activity · 1 event · Jun 13 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 13BUYYES82+$9,502$9,502 Realized— Unrealized−$4 Total Profit−$4 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1326) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xd48a..90	MM	YES	$8.5K	+13%
This Market Entered at 72c → now 50c (+13%), $8.5K on YES Activity · 7 events · May 31 → Jun 12 DatePositionAmountTotal May 31BUYYES35+$300$300 Jun 01BUYYES36+$200$507 Jun 07BUYYES78+$1,111$2,221 Jun 08BUYYES78+$500$2,698 Jun 09BUYYES63+$1,000$3,180 Jun 11BUYYES82+$4,000$8,134 Jun 12BUYYES81+$300$8,396 Realized— Unrealized+$1,055 Total Profit+$1,055 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (138) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

70% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$348,174 on $57.4K capital deployed (avg +607.1%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

70% in profit

NO positions

30% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	82c	$30.6M	100c
AI Consensus	82c	—	✓ matched

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