AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (5 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 79c |
58%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 42c |
16%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | ??? | 35c |
35%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 25c |
65%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 45c |
55%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 60c |
65%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 48c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
A single tier wallet buying YES at 88c signals early conviction that Pakistan would host, but that thesis has collapsed with price now at 40c. Dominant NO flow on-chain combined with the underwater YES position suggests smart money has rotated away from Pakistan as the venue; the 88c entry is a stale bet, not a live directional signal.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | YES | $1.1K | -62% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,062 on $1.1K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 34c | $1.9M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 48c | — | ✓ matched |