AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 33c |
34%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 31c |
38%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 12c |
60%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 16c |
72%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 16c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 22c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The single tracked wallet bought YES at 38c and has watched the market drift to 16c, a losing directional bet that the market has decisively repriced toward NO. With only one participant, thin conviction, and a dominant NO side, smart-money positioning offers no credible case for a Qatar venue — the signal points to this specific outcome resolving against YES.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | YES | $1.1K | -34% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,085 on $1.1K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 16c | $762.7K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 22c | — | ✓ matched |