Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

Prediction markets put the probability at 7%: Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (7% YES). Log in to comment on videos and join in on the fun.

What’s Happening

Iran and the United States are working with mediators to finalize a 14-point memorandum of understanding that would establish a framework for a monthlong period of talks aimed at ending the ongoing war, according to people familiar with the matter. The development comes as both sides operate through intermediaries amid a battlefield deadlock that has persisted into May 2026, with President Donald Trump oscillating between diplomatic engagement and threats to resume the American bombing campaign should negotiations stall. The question of whether the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland remains unresolved, with the venue for any formal sit-down still subject to mediator coordination. [WSJ, May 7]

Hawkish voices in Washington have pushed back against a softer diplomatic posture. Senator Lindsey Graham on May 5 floated the prospect of additional US strikes targeting Iran's "war machine," arguing a large but brief effort would be justified after Tehran allegedly fired on a South Korean cargo vessel tied to Project Freedom. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on May 4 urged Beijing to escalate its diplomatic pressure on Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to international shipping, a topic he said would feature in the upcoming Trump-Xi summit. Analysts caution that any solution will be on US terms, with attorneys Mehek Cooke and Julian Epstein noting Trump's emphasis on military leverage rather than concessions. [Fox News, May 5]

Whether the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland depends on intermediary selection rather than bilateral choice, since direct contact remains absent. Historically, Switzerland has served as the US protecting power in Tehran since 1980, but recent rounds since the conflict's escalation have been routed through Oman and Qatar, with European Union officials also playing a coordinating role. NPR reported on May 3 that Trump's oscillation between diplomacy and renewed bombing has complicated venue planning, with mediators reluctant to commit publicly until the 14-point MOU is signed. The structural factor for resolution will be which mediator hosts the formal opening round — a decision likely tied to the Trump-Xi summit outcome and whether Hormuz transit resumes. [NPR, May 3]

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