Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO but the market resolved YES. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: Jun 21, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $2.3M

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?

Q: How did 'Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on Jun 21, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · JUN 21

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO (4 of 5 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

MODERATE RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved YES at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

4 of 5 Models Agreed: YES — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	YES	70c	40%
Compound Signal	NO	40c	20%
Claude Analysis	YES	68c	62%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	70c	65%
Kimi Macro	YES	75c	70%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 65c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

4 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

One smart-money wallet built YES at 3c, a deep-tail entry that signals high-conviction asymmetric positioning on Switzerland as the venue rather than a directional Iran-diplomacy bet. The 32c re-rating validates the thesis, but with only one tracked wallet and a 'NO dominant' tape, this is a lone convexity play — not a multi-wallet consensus.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x7c3d..6b	MM	YES	$5.1K	+68%
This Market Entered at 29c → now 50c (+68%), $5.1K on YES Activity · 7 events · Apr 24 → Jun 19 DatePositionAmountTotal Apr 24BUYYES1+$43$43 Jun 10SELLYES7−$104$223 Jun 11SELLYES7−$218$0 Jun 17BUYYES81+$841$841 Jun 18BUYYES79+$408$1,224 Jun 19BUYYES36+$2,411$2,970 Jun 19SELLYES56−$151$4,440 Realized+$310 Unrealized+$2,723 Total Profit+$3,032 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1516) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xbacd..35 +62%	MM	YES	$3.8K	+43%
This Market Entered at 33c → now 50c (+43%), $3.8K on YES ↑ Position grew +62% since last snapshot Activity · 5 events · May 07 → Jun 19 DatePositionAmountTotal May 07BUYYES6+$48$48 May 24BUYYES1+$33$46 Jun 14BUYYES23+$83$820 Jun 18BUYYES87+$201$3,255 Jun 19BUYYES70+$1,637$4,256 Realized— Unrealized+$1,834 Total Profit+$1,834 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1946) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x44c1..c1	MM	YES	$3.1K	+8%
This Market Entered at 59c → now 50c (+8%), $3.1K on YES Activity · 3 events · Jun 19 → Jun 20 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 19BUYYES59+$3,280$3,280 Jun 19SELLYES69−$250$3,598 Jun 20SELLYES67−$172$3,322 Realized+$58 Unrealized+$216 Total Profit+$274 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1774) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x5cd5..33 ★	MM	YES	$1.4K	-30%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 78c → now 50c (-30%), $1.4K on YES Activity · 6 events · Jun 14 → Jun 19 DatePositionAmountTotal Jun 14BUYYES85+$1,510$1,510 Jun 16BUYYES79+$162$1,568 Jun 17BUYYES82+$924$2,559 Jun 18BUYYES72+$57$2,317 Jun 19BUYYES57+$394$2,228 Jun 19SELLYES53−$903$1,137 Realized−$446 Unrealized−$325 Total Profit−$771 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1800) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

100% of Tracked YES Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$22,509 on $13.4K capital deployed (avg +168.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

100% in profit

NO positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	63c	$2.3M	100c
AI Consensus	65c	—	✓ matched

Back to Market Radar