Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 10?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 10. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES). Bessent urges China to step up diplomacy on Iran ahead of Trump-Xi summit.

What’s Happening

As of May 6, 2026, diplomatic channels between Washington and Tehran remain strained, with no confirmed date for a direct meeting. The question of whether the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 10 is currently assigned an 8% probability by market participants, reflecting deep skepticism. This uncertainty follows President Donald Trump’s statement on May 1 that he is “not satisfied” with Iran’s latest proposal, which was submitted via Pakistani mediators on April 30. The proposal was a response to amendments sent by US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff on April 27, but no follow-up talks have been publicly scheduled. [Institute for the Study of War, May 1]

The geopolitical context is further complicated by the upcoming Trump-Xi summit scheduled for the week of May 11. On May 4, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent publicly urged China to step up diplomacy with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, warning that the issue will be a central topic when the two leaders meet. Chinese sources told CNN that Beijing views the ongoing US-Iran conflict as potentially strengthening its negotiating position, making it less likely that Beijing will press Tehran for a quick diplomatic resolution. This dynamic reduces the likelihood that the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 10, as Washington’s primary leverage point—China’s cooperation—remains uncertain. [CNN, May 4] [Kitco, May 4]

Meanwhile, hawkish voices in Washington are pushing for continued military action rather than diplomacy. Senator Lindsey Graham on May 5 floated the idea of more US attacks against Iran’s “war machine,” while President Trump declared on Truth Social that Iran has taken “shots at unrelated Nations” regarding ship movement. The New York Post editorial board on May 2 urged the administration to “finish the Iran war,” arguing that leaving the conflict unresolved would burden future presidents. The structural factor that will determine whether the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 10 is the outcome of the Trump-Xi summit: if China agrees to pressure Iran on the Strait of Hormuz, a meeting could be hastily arranged; if not, the probability of any direct US-Iran talks before May 10 remains near zero. [Fox News, May 5] [New York Post, May 5]

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($74K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 8c YES.