Was the AI verdict correct?

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	YES	58c	16%
PIN Model	YES	90c	80%
Compound Signal	NO	49c	2%
Claude Analysis	YES	52c	45%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	66c	75%
Gemini Flash	YES	65c	60%
Kimi Macro	YES	66c	80%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 64c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

4 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Five tracked wallets concentrated exclusively on YES with no NO counter-positioning signals directional bias toward the Thunder closing the Finals, despite shallow profitability. Entry band of 38c-54c suggests smart money has been accumulating through the regular season at consensus-favorite pricing — the lack of distribution at 42c implies holders are waiting for playoff confirmation rather than trimming, a mildly constructive setup for YES.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xde7b..4b	MM	YES	$103.4K	-9%
This Market Entered at 46c → now 50c (-9%), $103.4K on YES Activity · 7 events · Mar 04 → May 22 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 04BUYYES36+$10,707$10,707 Apr 11BUYYES41+$7,768$19,963 Apr 12BUYYES40+$7,729$27,205 Apr 14BUYYES42+$14,525$43,091 May 18BUYYES59+$35,400$95,932 May 20BUYYES42+$27,506$95,797 May 22BUYYES49+$10,350$122,113 Realized— Unrealized−$10,564 Total Profit−$10,564 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1534) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x6a72..ee	MM	YES	$52.0K	+9%
This Market Entered at 38c → now 50c (+9%), $52.0K on YES Activity · 2 events · Mar 17 → Mar 24 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 17BUYYES38+$30,624$30,626 Mar 24BUYYES38+$16,962$48,231 Realized— Unrealized+$4,417 Total Profit+$4,417 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (12) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xe25b..1b	MM	YES	$8.1K	-14%
This Market Entered at 48c → now 50c (-14%), $8.1K on YES Activity · 2 events · May 25 → May 27 DatePositionAmountTotal May 25BUYYES48+$9,074$9,074 May 27BUYYES44+$233$8,551 Realized— Unrealized−$1,242 Total Profit−$1,242 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1130) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xc021..a8 ★	MM	YES	$5.7K	-17%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 54c → now 50c (-17%), $5.7K on YES Activity · 5 events · May 01 → May 23 DatePositionAmountTotal May 01BUYYES56+$2,240$2,240 May 07BUYYES62+$1,860$4,340 May 10BUYYES61+$1,830$6,100 May 20BUYYES42+$2,100$6,300 May 23SELLYES64−$876$8,724 Realized+$143 Unrealized−$1,640 Total Profit−$1,497 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1230) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x011f..22	Retail	YES	$1.1K	+3%
This Market Entered at 40c → now 50c (+3%), $1.1K on YES Activity · 2 events · Jan 07 → May 21 DatePositionAmountTotal Jan 07BUYYES40+$667$667 May 21BUYYES41+$364$1,040 Realized— Unrealized+$34 Total Profit+$34 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 696 trades).

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

0% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$170,212 on $170.2K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

0% in profit

YES positions

100% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	42c	$15.2M	0c
AI Consensus	64c	—	× missed

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