AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction (5 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 61c |
22%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 52c |
4%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | ??? | 55c |
35%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 42c |
65%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 58c |
60%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 58c |
60%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 54c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money entries cluster on the NO side with a meaningful basis advantage: NO at 39c implies these wallets priced OKC's conference odds at roughly 61% to fail, while YES buyers paid up at 69c. The split entry distribution with profitable NO and stuck YES suggests tracked wallets lean skeptical of OKC closing out the West, with conviction sitting on the fade rather than the favorite.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xa8af..5e | MM | YES | $1.2K | -15% | |
| 0xde04..37 | Retail | NO | $1.0K | +2% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$467 on $2.2K capital deployed (avg +21.1%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 58c | $2.6M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 54c | — | × missed |