As of October 1, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the Republican Party win the VA-05 House seat?” at 78% YES with $54K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 78% probability to: will the republican party win the va-05 house seat?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moMajority of models lean NO, but not unanimous. BUY NO at 78c — models see 63c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | YES | 78c | 62% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 78c | 55% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 78c | 68% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 75c | 70% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 85c | 55% |
4 of 6 models estimate NO fair value above market (78–98c vs 22c). Grok Contrarian leads with 68% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 85c — market prices it at 22c. 63-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 22c, a deep-value entry that is now substantially in profit. This smart-money signal points to skepticism that Republicans hold VA-05, with the trader likely viewing the 78c YES price as overvalued. Their positioning implies directional conviction toward a Democratic win or at least a closer race than the market implies.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x44c1..c1 | MM | NO | $1.6K | +2% |
With YES at 78c, all YES holders are underwater as 0% are in profit, while 100% of NO holders are profitable, having entered at 22c. This lopsided P&L creates strong incentive for NO holders to defend their gains, likely capping upside and pressuring YES toward fair value. The lack of profitable YES positions suggests weak conviction and limited support at current levels.
Polymarket prices YES at 78c with $54K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 15c. Significant 63-point gap — model sees NO as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 78c | $54K |
| Our Model | 15c | — |