As of September 30, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the Republicans win the Florida governor race in 2026?” at 78% YES with $113K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 78% probability to: will the republicans win the florida governor race in 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo5/6 models agree on YES, fair value 84c vs market 78c. BUY YES at 78c — models see 6c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | YES | 80c | 66% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | YES | 82c | 55% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | ??? | 61c | 28% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 75c | 70% |
| AI Kimi Macro | YES | 85c | 72% |
5 of 6 models estimate YES fair value above market (75–98c vs 78c). Kimi Macro leads with 72% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 84c — market prices it at 78c. 6-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on YES at 78c, signaling one-sided smart-money conviction toward a Republican Florida governorship in 2026. With no NO entries to hedge or counter, this wallet's directional bet implies it sees the 78c level as fair or undervalued relative to true odds. However, the lack of broader wallet participation limits the signal's strength, as one wallet alone cannot confirm a market-wide smart-money consensus.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | YES | $4.1K | +1% |
With YES trading at 78c and all tracked YES entries made at 78c, the position is at breakeven with 100% of YES holders in profit only if price has ticked above entry; no NO entries exist to create opposing pressure. The absence of losing NO positions removes a source of downward price support, leaving the 78c level dependent on continued YES conviction. Any dip below 78c would immediately put the entire tracked YES cohort underwater, making that price a critical psychological support.
Polymarket prices YES at 78c while Kalshi has it at 82c — a 4-cent gap. Kalshi traders are more bullish on YES. Our model estimates fair value at 84c.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 78c | $113K |
| Kalshi | 82c | — |
| Our Model | 84c | — |