As of October 16, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?” at 12% YES with $166K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 12% probability to: will the republicans win the new hampshire senate race in 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/7 models agree on NO, fair value 15c vs market 12c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 71c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 90c | 78% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 72c | 45% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 86c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 92c | 78% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (71–98c vs 88c). Gemini Flash leads with 85% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 85c — market prices it at 88c. 3-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet is exclusively positioned on NO at 82c, signaling conviction that Republicans will not win the New Hampshire Senate race. With no YES entries from this wallet, there is no smart-money counterweight to challenge the bearish thesis. This positioning implies the market's 12c YES price may still be rich relative to informed expectations.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xeb6f..f0 | MM | NO | $1.8K | +7% |
With YES at 12c, every YES holder is underwater while all NO positions entered at 82c are in profit, creating strong incentive for NO holders to defend or extend their gains. The absence of profitable YES entries removes any natural bid support, leaving the 12c level vulnerable to further erosion. This one-sided P&L structure typically reinforces the dominant side until a catalyst forces repricing.
Significant 30-cent gap: Polymarket at 12c vs Kalshi at 42c. Kalshi traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 15c.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 12c | $166K |
| Kalshi | 42c | — |
| Our Model | 15c | — |