As of September 30, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?” at 14% YES with $148K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 14% probability to: will the republicans win the new hampshire senate race in 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/7 models agree on NO, fair value 14c vs market 14c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 71c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 87c | 72% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 86c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | ??? | 28c | 35% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 86c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 88c | 78% |
6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (71–98c vs 86c). Kimi Macro leads with 78% confidence.
Models estimate fair value at 86c — aligned with market. No edge detected.
The single tracked wallet entered NO at 82c, positioning against a Republican win and already sitting in profit as the market prices a 14% chance. That entry signals conviction that Democrats hold a clear edge in New Hampshire, with the wallet willing to tie up capital at a high NO price for a modest but likely return. With only one tracked wallet, the signal is thin, but its direction aligns with the dominant NO side and offers no evidence of contrarian YES accumulation.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xeb6f..f0 | MM | NO | $1.7K | +6% |
With YES at 14c, every YES position is underwater while all NO entries at 82c are in profit, creating a one-sided P&L picture that favors the bearish side. The absence of profitable YES holders removes any incentive for those longs to defend the price, leaving little support if selling pressure builds. This dynamic reinforces the 14c level as a ceiling rather than a floor, with NO holders sitting on gains that could encourage further selling of YES.
Significant 28-cent gap: Polymarket at 14c vs Kalshi at 42c. Kalshi traders see a substantially different probability. Our model estimates fair value at 14c.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 14c | $148K |
| Kalshi | 42c | — |
| Our Model | 14c | — |