As of October 14, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026?” at 5% YES with $153K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 5% probability to: will the republicans win the new york governor race in 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo6/7 models agree on NO, fair value 11c vs market 5c. BUY NO at 5c — models see 6c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 97c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 75c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 95c | 88% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 82c | 45% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 90c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 95c | 92% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
6 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (75–97c vs 95c). Kimi Macro leads with 92% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 89c — market prices it at 95c. 6-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet entered NO at 94c, a high-conviction short against a Republican New York gubernatorial win, and is already profitable. That entry signals smart money sees the GOP path as effectively closed and is willing to accept minimal upside for near-certain payoff. With no YES entries from tracked wallets, there is no credible counter-signal to challenge the bearish consensus.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xcaab..dd | Retail | NO | $3.0K | +1% |
With YES at 5c, every YES position is underwater while all NO positions are in profit, creating a one-sided P&L structure that reinforces downward price pressure. The absence of profitable YES holders removes any natural bid support, making rallies unlikely without fresh contrarian capital. This dynamic favors continued drift toward zero as NO holders have little incentive to exit.
Polymarket prices YES at 5c with $153K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 11c. 6-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $153K |
| Our Model | 11c | — |