As of September 30, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?” at 40% YES with $333K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here, 1 of them tier-1; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 40% probability to: will the republicans win the ohio senate race in 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/8 models agree on NO, fair value 26c vs market 40c. 1 tier-1 wallet aligned with models — BUY NO at 40c.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH Bayesian Update | NO | 74c | — |
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 58c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | 45c | 42% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 70c | 62% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 72c | 55% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 75c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 72c | 72% |
7 of 8 models estimate NO fair value above market (58–98c vs 60c). Gemini Flash leads with 75% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 74c — market prices it at 60c. 14-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 57c, signaling conviction that Republicans will not win the Ohio Senate race. With no YES entries from this wallet, there is no smart-money counterweight to challenge the bearish thesis. This concentrated NO positioning implies the informed flow expects Democratic retention or a Republican defeat in Ohio.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xc021..a8 ★ | Smart | NO | $3.9K | +5% |
With YES at 40c, every YES position is underwater while all NO entries at 57c are in profit, creating a one-sided P&L picture. The absence of profitable YES holders removes any incentive to defend the 40c level, leaving the price vulnerable to further downside. This asymmetry suggests the market is pricing a Republican loss, with NO holders sitting on gains that could tempt profit-taking but currently reinforce the bearish tilt.
Polymarket prices YES at 40c while Kalshi has it at 42c — a 2-cent gap within normal range. Our model estimates fair value at 26c.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 40c | $333K |
| Kalshi | 42c | — |
| Our Model | 26c | — |