As of October 13, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the Republicans win the Tennessee Senate race in 2026?” at 94% YES with $50K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 94% probability to: will the republicans win the tennessee senate race in 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo5/6 models agree on YES, fair value 93c vs market 94c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 97c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | YES | 95c | 72% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 82c | 48% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 95c | 90% |
| AI Kimi Macro | YES | 96c | 92% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
5 of 6 models estimate YES fair value below market (82–97c vs 94c). Kimi Macro leads with 92% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 93c — market prices it at 94c. 1-point gap supports NO.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on YES at 96c, signaling conviction that Republicans hold the Tennessee Senate seat but at a worse entry than the current 94c price. This lone long offers no contrarian smart-money signal since there are no NO entries to compare against, and the wallet's underwater status means it is not adding to strength. Directionally, the positioning still favors YES, but the lack of follow-through buying caps upside momentum.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xcaab..dd | Retail | YES | $1.0K | -2% |
With YES trading at 94c and the sole tracked wallet entering at 96c, that position is underwater by 2c, leaving 0% of YES holders in profit and no NO entries to offset. The absence of profitable participants on either side suggests thin liquidity and weak price support at current levels, with the 94c print reflecting a slight markdown from the last recorded entry. Without fresh buyers stepping in above 96c, the market lacks a profit-taking catalyst to push YES higher.
Polymarket prices YES at 94c while Kalshi has it at 95c — a 1-cent gap within normal range. Our model estimates fair value at 93c.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 94c | $50K |
| Kalshi | 95c | — |
| Our Model | 93c | — |