Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?
YES
78c
NO
22c
As of October 2, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?” at 78% YES with $83K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 78% probability to: will the republicans win the vermont governor race in 2026?.
On this market: 5/6 models independently agree YES — rare convergence. Full verdict track record on the accuracy page.
PRO Analysis
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5 of 6 models estimate YES fair value above market (78–98c vs 78c). Kimi Macro leads with 82% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 85c — market prices it at 78c. 7-point gap supports YES.
Why One Model Disagrees: Grok Contrarian dissents at 42c — Consensus 78% YES massively overweights Phil Scott's personal brand while ignoring Vermont's structural D+15 to D+20 baseline and the non...
1 Active Wallets on This Market
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively YES at 74c, signaling conviction that Republicans hold the Vermont governorship in 2026. With no NO entries from this wallet, there is no hedging or counter-positioning to dilute the directional bet. The entry below current price suggests the wallet accumulated before the market repriced higher, reinforcing the YES lean.
Wallet
Category
Side
Amount
P&L
0xde7b..4b
MM
YES
$7.1K
+6%
This Market
Entered at 74c → now 78c (+6%), $7.1K on YES
Activity · 1 event · Oct 02
DatePositionAmountTotal
Oct 02BUYYES74+$6,753$6,752
Realized—
Unrealized+$385
Total Profit+$385
Wallet Type
Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1590) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
YES is the only tracked side, with all entries in profit as the 74c cost basis sits 4c below the current 78c price. No NO entries exist to create opposing pressure, so the profit cushion on YES likely reduces near-term sell incentive. That dynamic supports the 78c level as holders have little reason to exit at a loss.
Profit/Loss by Side
YES positions
100%in profit
NO positions
0%in profit
Polymarket: 78c YES — $83K Volume
Polymarket prices YES at 78c with $83K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 85c. 7-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
What are the current odds for Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?
As of October 2026, Polymarket prices this at 78% YES with $83K in total volume.
Where can I bet on Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?
This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.
What does smart money say about Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?
OddsShift tracks 1 smart money wallet on this market. Dominant position: YES. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.
What do AI models predict for Will the Republicans win the Vermont governor race in 2026?
OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 85c YES. 5 models agree on direction.
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