AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 2 of 5 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 49c |
2%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | ??? | 45c |
35%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | ??? | 49c |
35%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 55c |
55%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 74c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 62c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money established YES at 32c well below the current 43c, signaling conviction built before the market repriced San Antonio's path higher. The absence of tracked NO positioning combined with a profitable early YES entry points to directional alignment with the Spurs thesis rather than hedging or fade behavior.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde04..37 | Retail | YES | $2.0K | +8% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$4,291 on $2.0K capital deployed (avg +209.5%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 43c | $3.1M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 62c | — | ✓ matched |