AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 6c |
78%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 15c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
80%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The lone tracked wallet positioned exclusively NO at 86c, a high-conviction fade that has played out as Tampa's title odds collapsed to 8c. No smart money is defending the YES side, and the NO entry near the ceiling signals the wallet treated a Lightning Cup as structurally unlikely from the outset. Direction bias remains firmly toward resolution NO.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x6a72..ee | MM | NO | $4.4K | +8% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$734 on $4.4K capital deployed (avg +16.7%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8c | $2.0M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |