AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 30c |
40%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 5c |
88%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 11c |
68%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 12c |
90%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 16c |
60%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 13c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 71c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x44c1..c1 | MM | NO | $6.4K | +31% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$2,636 on $6.4K capital deployed (avg +40.9%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 7c | $120.5K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 13c | — | ✓ matched |