Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 31?

Prediction markets put the probability at 72%: Will the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 31. Currently, markets see this as likely (72% YES). This places Brand New Day just behind Spider-Man: No Way Home‘s total of $814.8 million domestically, with that 2021 film standing at No.

What’s Happening

Sony Pictures' Spider-Man: Brand New Day became the fastest movie in history to reach $800 million at the domestic box office, the studio confirmed on Wednesday, August 19. The Tom Holland-led feature, which opened on July 31, 2026, sits just behind Spider-Man: No Way Home's domestic total of $814.8 million, the 2021 film that ranks No. 3 on the all-time North American chart. Over the same weekend, Brand New Day crossed $2 billion globally to become the eighth title ever to hit that mark, surpassing No Way Home's $1.9 billion worldwide cume and standing as Sony's highest-grossing feature. Whether the total domestic gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day be less than 900m by August 31 hinges on how quickly its late-run pace decelerates. [Hollywoodreporter, Aug 19]

The film's trajectory was set by a record start. It generated $72 million in preview sales, then posted a $355 million North American opening weekend and a $932 million global debut — the second-biggest opening of all time. Brand New Day cleared $1 billion after just six days and became the fastest film to reach $500 million and $700 million domestically, breaking records previously held by Avengers titles. Analysts had noted that the bulk of its box office would land in August, typically the softest month of the summer calendar, giving the theatrical industry a momentum boost into fall. [CNBC, Jul 31]

With roughly $800 million banked by mid-August, the film would need about $100 million in additional domestic receipts before August 31 to cross the $900 million threshold. Post-opening weekly declines typical of blockbuster runs make that pace demanding, which is why the question of the total domestic gross for spider-man: brand new day be less than 900m by august 31 remains contested. The film has been running alongside Universal's The Odyssey, another Holland-featuring title that reached $912.4 million worldwide, contributing to a powerful overall market. The final August tally will confirm whether the total domestic gross for spider-man: brand new day be less than 900m by august 31 or clears the mark. [Screendaily, Aug 03]

Traded on Polymarket — $54K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($54K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 72c YES.