AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 28c |
44%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 12c |
72%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 85c |
75%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 65c |
70%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 60c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 10c |
80%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 37c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is uniformly positioned NO at 91-92c entries, signaling high confidence that the UK will not transit warships through Hormuz before April 30. The absence of YES entries among tracked wallets confirms zero institutional appetite for the long-tail geopolitical escalation thesis. Directional read: NO resolution is the consensus base case, with smart money treating residual YES probability as noise rather than opportunity.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xbacd..35 | MM | NO | $2.9K | — | |
| 0x5cd5..33 | MM | NO | $1.1K | -1% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$383 on $4.0K capital deployed (avg +9.6%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 9c | $443.1K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 37c | — | ✓ matched |