Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?'?

As of May 2026, prediction markets price this at 21% YES on Polymarket with $1.4M in total trading volume.

79c

YES

21c

Prediction markets put the probability at 21%: Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (21% YES).

Up from 11% to 21% since 2026-04-14 (+10pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $1.4M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $1.4M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 21c YES.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?

As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 21% YES with $1.4M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.