Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
NO
76c
YES
24c
As of September 1, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?” at 24% YES with $1.4M traded. No tracked wallet holds a position on this market, so there is no verdict.
Prediction markets put the probability at 36%: Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026. Currently, markets are divided (36% YES, 64% NO). While the market’s reaction last September was far from ordinary, this most recent rate cut could be less interesting, at least relative to history.
$1.4M traded on this market. OddsShift tracks 166 tracked wallets and runs up to 5 AI models to find where the market is wrong.
No verdict on this market
None of the 166 tracked wallets holds a position here, so the Radar makes no call — price, volume and news above are live.
When a tracked wallet takes a position, this page gets a verdict.