Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?'?

As of August 2026, prediction markets price this at 42% YES on Polymarket with $1.4M in total trading volume.

58c

YES

42c

Prediction markets put the probability at 40%: Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026. Currently, markets are divided (40% YES, 60% NO).

Up from 22% to 42% since 2026-06-01 (+20pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $1.4M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $1.4M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 42c YES.

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?

As of August 2026, Polymarket prices this at 42% YES with $1.4M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.