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Resolves: Dec 2026 7 months left Volume: $2.3M

Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

Q: What are the current odds for 'Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?'?

As of May 2026, prediction markets price this at 24% YES on Polymarket with $2.3M in total trading volume.

Q: What does smart money say about 'Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?'?

OddsShift tracks 6 smart money wallets on this market. The dominant position among tracked wallets is NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability and win rate across Polymarket.

Q: What do AI models predict for 'Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?'?

OddsShift runs mathematical models (Bayesian Update, PIN, Compound Signal) plus independent AI models (Claude, DeepSeek, Grok, Gemini, Kimi) on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 22c YES. 6 models agree on direction. See full model breakdown on the market page.

76c

YES

24c

Prediction markets put the probability at 24%: Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (24% YES).

Up from 22% to 24% since 2026-04-14 (+2pp)

Traded on Polymarket — $2.3M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $2.3M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 24c YES.

Trade this market on Polymarket →

On this market: 6/5 AI models agree NO. Our system has been 100% accurate when 4+ models converge — across 12 resolved markets.

MODERATE OUR VERDICT

BUY NO 77c

6/6 models agree on NO, fair value 22c vs market 24c. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.

Stop Loss Current Target Fair Value

6 of 6 Models Agree: NO

Model	Says	Fair Value estimated fair price	Confidence
MATH PIN Model	NO	82c	—
MATH Compound Signal	NO	65c	—
AI Claude Analysis	NO	94c	88%
AI DeepSeek Quant	NO	82c	72%
AI Gemini Flash	NO	72c	65%
AI Kimi Macro	NO	76c	70%

6 of 6 models estimate NO fair value above market (65–94c vs 76c). Claude Analysis leads with 88% confidence.

Models estimate fair value of NO at 78c — market prices it at 76c. 2-point gap supports NO.

5 Market Makers Providing Liquidity

Smart money skews NO-dominant across 6 tracked wallets, with NO entries clustered well above market reflecting conviction that invasion stays a tail risk. YES buyers loaded the floor at 23-24c as cheap optionality, but the NO-side capital weight and profitability profile signal directional bias toward resolution NO rather than escalation.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xc658..84	MM	NO	$20.7K	-8%
This Market Entered at 83c → now 76c (-8%), $20.7K on NO Activity · 1 event · May 07 DatePositionAmountTotal May 07BUYNO83+$22,382$22,381 Realized— Unrealized−$1,686 Total Profit−$1,686 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1758) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x44c1..c1	MM	YES	$12.2K	-1%
This Market Entered at 24c → now 24c (-1%), $12.2K on YES Activity · 2 events · May 02 → May 12 DatePositionAmountTotal May 02BUYYES24+$3,252$3,251 May 12BUYYES24+$9,033$12,308 Realized— Unrealized−$86 Total Profit−$86 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1720) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x4337..82	MM	NO	$4.5K	+71%
This Market Entered at 27c → now 76c (+71%), $4.5K on NO Activity · 2 events · Mar 18 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 18BUYNO27+$1,725$1,725 Mar 18SELLNO73−$273$4,321 Realized+$170 Unrealized+$2,906 Total Profit+$3,076 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (860) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x7c3d..6b	MM	NO	$3.4K	+30%
This Market Entered at 56c → now 76c (+30%), $3.4K on NO Activity · 3 events · Mar 14 → Mar 18 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 14BUYNO80+$736$736 Mar 18BUYNO50+$1,839$2,300 Mar 18SELLNO70−$103$3,106 Realized+$20 Unrealized+$902 Total Profit+$922 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1040) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xde7b..4b	MM	YES	$3.4K	+2%
This Market Entered at 23c → now 24c (+2%), $3.4K on YES Activity · 1 event · May 20 DatePositionAmountTotal May 20BUYYES23+$3,292$3,292 Realized— Unrealized+$63 Total Profit+$63 Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1532) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xeec5..fe	Retail	NO	$1.6K	+9%
This Market Entered at 70c → now 76c (+9%), $1.6K on NO Activity · 1 event · Mar 18 DatePositionAmountTotal Mar 18BUYNO70+$1,505$1,505 Realized— Unrealized+$139 Total Profit+$139 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1550 trades).

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75% of NO Positions Are in Profit

All YES holders are in profit with entries at 23-24c against current 24c, while 75% of NO positions remain profitable thanks to higher average entries spanning 27-83c. The wide NO entry range signals staged accumulation from elevated levels, with current price compression squeezing the late NO entrants but leaving early NO buyers comfortably ahead.

Profit/Loss by Side

YES positions

50% in profit

NO positions

75% in profit

Polymarket: 24c YES — $2.3M Volume

Polymarket prices YES at 24c with $2.3M in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 22c. 2-point gap is within normal range — no significant mispricing.

Platform	YES Price	Volume
Polymarket	24c	$2.3M
Our Model	22c	—

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Frequently Asked Questions

What are the current odds for Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

As of May 2026, Polymarket prices this at 24% YES with $2.3M in total volume.

Where can I bet on Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

This market is available on Polymarket (crypto-native, global access via USDC). OddsShift tracks prices and smart money positioning in real time.

What does smart money say about Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

OddsShift tracks 6 smart money wallets on this market. Dominant position: NO. Smart money wallets are selected based on historical profitability across Polymarket.

What do AI models predict for Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?

OddsShift runs mathematical + AI models on every alpha market. Current fair value estimate: 22c YES. 6 models agree on direction.