AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction (6 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 14c |
72%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 6c |
88%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 23c |
54%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 16c |
62%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 14c |
82%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 14c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 14c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money is one-directional: 3 wallets, zero YES exposure, all leaning NO on a blockade that markets already price as unlikely. Their 81c-87c entries signal they expect no US blockade by July 31 and are fading the YES premium, though the underwater cost basis means they bought before the odds moved further their way.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x162f..8d | MM | NO | $7.5K | -19% | |
| 0x44c1..c1 | MM | NO | $7.2K | -14% | |
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $3.8K | -21% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$18,517 on $18.5K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 30c | $1.9M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 14c | — | × missed |