AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 29c |
42%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 12c |
72%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
72%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 14c |
70%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 13c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is unambiguously fading the withdrawal-announcement scenario, having entered NO at 63c and ridden it deep into profit as the market repriced toward status-quo negotiations continuing. The single-wallet sample is thin, but the directional read is clean: no tracked capital is backing a US exit from the MOU talks before August 31. The signal points to negotiations remaining intact through the window.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | NO | $3.0K | +24% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,259 on $3.0K capital deployed (avg +41.9%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8c | $472.6K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 13c | — | ✓ matched |