Prediction markets put the probability at 32%: Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31. Currently, markets are divided (32% YES, 68% NO).
The question of whether the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31 centers on two parallel diplomatic tracks tied to the same instrument: a 14-point Memorandum of Understanding. On July 10, the Trump administration accused Iran of violating the MOU it had signed three weeks earlier by repeatedly firing on commercial vessels in and around the Strait of Hormuz, and demanded Tehran publicly acknowledge the strait is open by a Saturday deadline. A US official described a power struggle inside the Iranian regime over implementing the accord. Although President Donald Trump publicly declared the MoU with Iran "over," other US officials reaffirmed Washington's commitment to continue technical talks toward a lasting peace deal. [Axios, Jul 10]
The tension follows the collapse of a 60-day ceasefire during which US-Iran negotiations were meant to proceed on the basis of the MoU. From Tuesday night to Thursday that week, the two sides traded attacks in a major escalation, yet Washington signaled talks would resume. Analysts noted the US starting position laid out in the MoU made it difficult to envisage the United States achieving its war aims through negotiation, while Gulf States and Israel appeared prepared to make concessions. Whether the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31 depends heavily on whether Iran meets US conditions on Hormuz shipping and de-escalation. [Al Jazeera, Jul 10]
A separate MoU track concerns Israel, where the government is pushing to accelerate defense-aid negotiations with the Trump administration as US midterm elections loom, with an expected return visit to Washington reported for that week. The pace has been described as so slow that it was unclear whether a deal could close on schedule. With Trump publicly consistent on the Iran campaign and IDF withdrawal from Lebanon still hinging on Hezbollah, multiple flashpoints remain unresolved before the deadline. The near-term test of whether the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by August 31 will turn on Iran's compliance signals and the momentum of the Israel talks in the coming weeks. [Jerusalem Post, Jul 13]
Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($55K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 32c YES.
Smart money entered NO at 63c. 100% of NO wallets in profit.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 63c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | NO | $2.0K | +8% |
NO wallets entered at 63c. At current price 32c, all YES buyers are underwater while all NO holders are profitable. Profitable positions rarely sell early — NO side has structural price support.
Polymarket prices YES at 32c with $55K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 32c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 32c | $55K |
| Our Model | 32c | — |