Trump is weighing scrapping the vague two-page Iran MOU amid renewed war tensions, but a formal withdrawal announcement by July 31 stays unlikely at 22%.
The question of whether the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31 sharpened this week after President Donald Trump declared the Iran Memorandum of Understanding "is over." Speaking at the start of a NATO summit in Turkey on Wednesday, July 8, Trump called the Islamic Republic "dirty players" for targeting commercial shipping, following a fresh series of strikes across the region. The remarks came days after Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned on July 7 that "negotiations on a final deal will not commence" while US military threats continued, citing Paragraph 13 of the MoU. Trump had separately vowed, "We're going to make a deal, or we're going to finish the job." [CNN, Jul 08]
The stakes reflect how fragile the two-page agreement was from the outset. The MoU, reached weeks earlier, purported to grant significant up-front American concessions to Iran in exchange for opening the Strait of Hormuz — a waterway that was already open before the war Trump launched in February. Iran, however, has interpreted the document as not even requiring unimpeded Hormuz access, the very issue the administration cited as its rationale. Analysts described the accord as short on detail and internally contradictory, leaving both sides claiming different obligations. [CNN, Jul 02]
Whether the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31 may hinge on regional escalation and European pressure. Visiting German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said on July 7 that Berlin and Israel hold "a fairly aligned position," arguing Iran's missiles and proxies must be part of any talks and that Europeans will eventually have to be involved. With Trump weighing scrapping the framework amid renewed U.S.-Israeli conflict against Iran, observers note the JCPOA precedent showed diplomacy could work — but a formal decision on whether the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations remains unresolved. [Times of Israel, Jul 07]
Polymarket prices this at 22c YES with $196K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.
Smart money entered NO at 90c.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 90c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x162f..8d | MM | NO | $6.6K | -14% |
NO wallets entered at 90c. At current price 22c, none of the NO holders are profitable vs none of the YES holders are profitable. Both sides have similar profitability — no structural edge.
Polymarket prices YES at 22c with $196K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 22c. Model and market are aligned — no pricing discrepancy detected.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 22c | $196K |
| Our Model | 22c | — |