AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 3 of 5 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 83c |
66%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 43c |
14%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 8c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 25c |
65%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 52c |
55%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 59c |
65%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 45c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The lone tracked entry at 11c signals a deep-value Cup futures bet placed when Vegas was priced as a long shot, and the conviction has been validated by the 30c repricing. Despite the dominant_side flag reading NO, the only actual smart money footprint is directionally long YES, suggesting tracked alpha views 41c as still underpricing Vegas's championship path.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde04..37 | Retail | YES | $1.0K | +1% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,020 on $1.0K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 21c | $3.6M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 45c | — | ✓ matched |