Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned YES with STRONG conviction (6 of 7 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: Apr 22, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $2.2M

Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?

Q: How did 'Will the Virginia redistricting referendum pass?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on Apr 22, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · APR 22

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned YES — 6 of 7 models agreed with STRONG conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

STRONG RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI consensus leaned YES with STRONG conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

6 of 7 Models Agreed: YES

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	YES	91c	82%
PIN Model	YES	82c	64%
Compound Signal	YES	70c	40%
DeepSeek Quant	YES	85c	75%
Grok Contrarian	???	45c	60%
Gemini Flash	YES	82c	75%
Kimi Macro	YES	81c	80%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 77c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

1 of 3 Wallets Is Smart Money

We tracked 3 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. 1 is classified as smart money. YES wallets entered between 91c–92c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xde04..37	Smart	NO	$6.6K	+10%
This Market Entered at 13c → now 50c (+10%), $6.6K on NO Track Record 542 trades · 100% win rate · other specialist Wallet Type High-conviction trader with 100% win rate across 542 resolved bets. Disagrees with consensus.
0x0c0e..4e ★	MM	YES	$22.4K	-7%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 92c → now 50c (-7%), $22.4K on YES Track Record 10mo on platform · 1568 trades · politics specialist Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (1568) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xd48a..90 ★	MM	YES	$1.5K	-6%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 91c → now 50c (-6%), $1.5K on YES Track Record 6d on platform · 352 trades · other specialist Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (352) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

78% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$4,513 on $30.6K capital deployed (avg -14.8%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

78% in profit

NO positions

22% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	86c	$2.2M	100c
AI Consensus	77c	—	✓ matched

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