As of October 11, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Democrats win the Senate?” at 6% YES with $136K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 6% probability to: will there be a hormuz agreement and the democrats win the senate?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moTracked wallets are positioned YES, but 4/7 models estimate NO. Wallets and models disagree — no entry.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 69c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 94c | 78% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 38c | 42% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 85c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 92c | 72% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
4 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (69–94c vs 94c). DeepSeek Quant leads with 78% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 85c — market prices it at 94c. 9-point gap supports YES.
Only one tracked wallet has entered, and it is exclusively on the YES side at 6c, signaling a small speculative long on a low-probability compound event. With no NO entries from tracked wallets, there is no smart-money counterweight or fade to read as bearish conviction. The single-wallet YES positioning suggests early accumulation or a lottery-ticket bet rather than broad directional confidence.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x12d6..a8 | Smart | YES | $1.2K | +3% |
With YES trading at 6c and all YES entries between 6c-6c, every YES position sits at breakeven-to-marginal profit, while no NO entries exist to show losses. The complete absence of NO profit-taking means there is no downside pressure from profitable shorts, leaving the thin 6c price supported only by YES holders who have no incentive to sell at cost. This one-sided book makes the market fragile to any new NO flow.
Polymarket prices YES at 6c with $136K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 15c. Significant 9-point gap — model sees YES as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $136K |
| Our Model | 15c | — |