As of October 12, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will there be a Hormuz agreement and the Republicans win the Senate?” at 5% YES with $538K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 5% probability to: will there be a hormuz agreement and the republicans win the senate?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moTracked wallets are positioned YES, but 4/7 models estimate NO. Wallets and models disagree — no entry.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 53c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 70c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 96c | 82% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | YES | 28c | 41% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 85c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 92c | 72% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
4 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (70–96c vs 95c). DeepSeek Quant leads with 82% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 86c — market prices it at 95c. 9-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet entered YES at 4c, signaling a small speculative bet on a low-probability compound event. Their positioning indicates directional conviction toward YES, but the tiny sample size and penny-level entry offer weak predictive value for broader smart-money flow.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x12d6..a8 | Retail | YES | $1.9K | +35% |
With YES at 5c, all tracked YES entries from 4c are in profit, while NO positions show no profitability. This skew suggests early YES buyers are holding gains, creating mild support at the 4-5c range. The absence of profitable NO entries implies limited downside pressure from current NO holders.
Polymarket prices YES at 5c with $538K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 14c. Significant 9-point gap — model sees YES as substantially mispriced.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $538K |
| Our Model | 14c | — |