Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES). Berhalter scores in the 76th minute for Whitecaps in 1-1 tie with MLS-leading Earthquakes.

What’s Happening

A series of seismic events across multiple continents in early May 2026 has renewed attention on global earthquake frequency, a key input for the question of whether there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in the calendar year. In Southern California's Imperial County, an earthquake swarm produced more than 350 recorded tremors between Saturday morning and Sunday near the city of Brawley, with the strongest measuring magnitude 4.7 just after midnight. Nearly 200,000 residents reported feeling shaking, prompting the California Governor's Office of Emergency Services to coordinate with local agencies, though no major damage was reported as the swarm began slowing on Sunday. [ABC7 Los Angeles, May 11]

In Australia, a separate seismic event near Newmont Corporation's Cadia Valley gold and copper mine in New South Wales trapped 153 miners underground for roughly 10 hours on May 9, 2026. The quake was reported as the largest seismic event ever recorded in the region, with tremors felt as far as Sydney, more than 250 kilometres from the epicentre. Workers sheltered in emergency refuge chambers before returning to the surface, with operations at the mine suspended pending structural assessments. The Australian event, while significant locally, registered below the magnitude 7.0 threshold relevant to the question of whether there be between 8 and 10 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026. [WSWS, May 9]

Historically, the United States Geological Survey records an average of approximately 15 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater per year globally, with annual counts typically ranging from 10 to 20. The narrow 8-to-10 band sits below this long-run average, requiring a quieter-than-typical year for major seismic activity through December 31, 2026. The recent Imperial County swarm and Cadia Valley event, while widely covered, fall well below the magnitude 7.0 threshold and do not contribute to the count. With more than seven months remaining in the calendar year, resolution depends on the pace of major seismic events through year-end, and any uptick along major subduction zones in the Pacific Ring of Fire or Mediterranean belt could push the final tally outside the specified band. [CBS News, May 10]

Traded on Polymarket — $132K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 8c YES with $132K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.