Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?

Prediction markets put the probability at 22%: Will there be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (22% YES). Find us on Google 📌 View from the pews Start the day smarter ☀️ Get the USA TODAY app.

What’s Happening

As of late May 2026, a prediction market tracking global seismic activity indicates a 22% probability that there will be exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30. This metric, categorized under science, reflects a statistical assessment based on current seismic data. Recent weeks have seen notable seismic events, including a magnitude 5.1 earthquake in China on May 18 that was felt in Vietnam, and a separate magnitude 5.2 quake in southern China's Guangxi region the same day, which killed two people and forced the evacuation of over 7,000 residents. [USA Today, May 18] [ABC News, May 18]

Additional seismic activity has been recorded globally, though none have reached the magnitude 7.0 threshold required to count toward the target of exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide. On May 20, a magnitude 5.6 earthquake struck eastern Turkey, prompting school evacuations in Malatya province. Days later, on May 22, a magnitude 6.0 earthquake hit off the Big Island of Hawaii, near Honaunau-Napoopoo, with the U.S. Geological Survey assessing potential impacts on the Kilauea volcano. These events, while significant, remain below the major quake threshold. [Washington Post, May 20] [Reuters, May 22]

The current 78% probability against the occurrence of exactly 7 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by the end of June suggests that market participants view the historical frequency of such major quakes as a key factor. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, the global average for magnitude 7.0+ earthquakes is roughly 15 per year, or about 1.25 per month. With only weeks remaining until the deadline, and no such quakes recorded in the period covered by recent reports, the probability of hitting exactly seven by June 30 remains low. The outcome will depend on whether a cluster of major seismic events occurs in the coming weeks. [Newsweek, May 23]

Traded on Polymarket — $291K Volume

Polymarket prices this at 19c YES with $291K in volume. Moderate liquidity — use limit orders for positions above $1K to avoid moving the price.