As of October 11, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will there be no Hormuz agreement?” at 88% YES with $168K traded. 2 tracked wallets hold a position here; the dominant side is YES.
Prediction markets give a 88% probability to: will there be no hormuz agreement?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/moMajority of models lean YES, but not unanimous. Weak edge — consider waiting for stronger signal.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | YES | 98c | — |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | YES | 88c | 55% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | ??? | 62c | 28% |
| AI Gemini Flash | YES | 90c | 85% |
| AI Kimi Macro | YES | 92c | 78% |
| AI Claude Analysis | ??? | — | 0% |
4 of 6 models estimate YES fair value above market (88–98c vs 88c). Gemini Flash leads with 85% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of YES at 92c — market prices it at 88c. 4-point gap supports YES.
Only two wallets are tracked, both on the YES side at 88c, signaling one-directional positioning with no smart-money counterweight on NO. Their entries at the current price offer no informational edge about direction since they are not in profit and likely represent late or momentum-driven positioning. This concentration suggests the market is one-sided and vulnerable to a sharp repricing if any of these holders exit.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x12d6..a8 | Smart | YES | $13.5K | +0% | |
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | YES | $2.2K | +1% |
With YES trading at 88c and all tracked YES entries made at 88c, the position is essentially flat with no meaningful profit cushion, while NO has no tracked entries. The absence of profitable NO holders removes a natural source of selling pressure, but the lack of YES upside also means little incentive to add at these levels. Price support at 88c appears thin, resting more on the absence of opposition than on conviction buying.
Polymarket prices YES at 88c with $168K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 92c. 4-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 88c | $168K |
| Our Model | 92c | — |