AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved NO at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 20c |
60%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 16c |
68%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 28c |
44%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 20c |
65%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 25c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 79c |
80%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 31c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 74c.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x5cd5..33 ★ | Retail | NO | $1.5K | -7% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$510 on $1.5K capital deployed (avg +34.8%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 32c | $504.4K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 31c | — | ✓ matched |