AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 5 of 6 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 6c |
85%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 15c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 6c |
90%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is unanimously positioned NO, with entries at 89c signaling high conviction that Trump would not concede Iranian enrichment within April's window. The YES entry at 37c looks like a contrarian fade that mis-timed diplomatic posture — wallet flow confirms the structural NO thesis with no directional dissent.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x24c8..e1 | MM | NO | $17.8K | +5% | |
| 0x44c1..c1 | MM | YES | $1.5K | -84% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$710 on $19.3K capital deployed (avg +3.7%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $2.2M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |