Will Trump and Putin meet next in China?

Prediction markets put the probability at 32%: Will Trump and Putin meet next in China. Currently, markets are divided (32% YES, 68% NO).

What’s Happening

The Kremlin has officially stated there are currently “no plans” for a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump in China, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov making the remarks on Wednesday, April 15. This statement came in response to questions about a potential sideline encounter during Trump’s scheduled visit to Beijing on May 14 and 15 for a high-level summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The denial effectively dampened speculation that the two leaders would use the Chinese venue for their first face-to-face talks since Trump returned to office, though the White House has not commented on the possibility of a separate bilateral engagement [AP, Apr 15].

However, the diplomatic calendar has shifted significantly since that denial, as the Kremlin announced on Saturday, May 16, that Putin will travel to Beijing for a two-day visit to meet Xi Jinping, arriving just days after Trump’s own state visit concluded. The announcement came less than 24 hours after Trump finished his trip, which ended with warm optics but few concrete resolutions on trade, the Russian war on Ukraine, or the US-Israeli war in Iran. Sources told the South China Morning Post that Putin’s visit is expected to occur on May 20, and while it is framed as routine bilateral dealings, the proximity of the two leaders’ trips to the same host city has renewed attention on whether a Trump-Putin meeting in China could still materialize as an unofficial or last-minute addition [SCMP, May 15].

The sequencing matters because a potential Trump and Putin meet next in China scenario would represent a major diplomatic event, but the Kremlin’s explicit denial on April 15 and the lack of any subsequent confirmation from either side have kept the probability low. Putin’s upcoming talks with Xi are expected to focus on energy, trade, and coordination on regional security, with little expectation of an elaborate welcome or a trilateral format. The key procedural milestone to watch is whether any official schedule change is announced between now and May 20, as both leaders will be in the same country within a six-day window, yet no joint appearance has been confirmed. The absence of any formal request from either Washington or Moscow for a bilateral meeting on Chinese soil remains the primary barrier to a face-to-face encounter [France 24, May 16].

Traded on Polymarket — $51K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($51K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 32c YES.