Prediction markets put the probability at 91%: Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in May. Currently, markets see this as likely (91% YES). Elon Musk and Tim Cook Will Travel to China With Trump: Report.
President Donald Trump is scheduled to travel to China from May 13-15 for a high-stakes summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, bringing a delegation of top U.S. business leaders including Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Apple CEO Tim Cook. The trip, the first state visit by a U.S. president in nearly a decade, is expected to cover trade, artificial intelligence, and the ongoing Iran conflict. Reports confirm that Musk will be present at the summit and accompanying events, including a state banquet on May 14 where Musk was photographed pulling faces and taking selfies with Xi. The presence of Musk on this official trip makes a direct conversation between Trump and Musk in May highly likely, as the two will share multiple formal and informal settings over the three-day visit. [Reuters, Mon May 11]
The political significance of this meeting extends beyond bilateral diplomacy, as Trump is leveraging the trip to shore up domestic support ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. By bringing Musk—a prominent donor and ally—Trump signals a fusion of tech industry influence with his administration’s foreign policy agenda. The 91% probability that Trump will speak to Elon Musk in May reflects the near-certainty of their interaction during the China visit, given Musk’s inclusion in the official delegation and the multiple scheduled events. The summit also comes as Trump faces pressure over the Iran war, which has weakened his approval ratings, making the optics of a successful dialogue with Xi and Musk critical for his political narrative. [Guardian, Wed May 13]
Looking ahead, the key procedural milestone is the conclusion of the summit on May 15, after which any substantive conversation between Trump and Musk would likely have occurred. While the two have a well-documented public relationship—Musk attended the SpaceX Starship launch with Trump in November 2024—the China trip provides a structured environment for a formal discussion on topics like AI regulation and electric vehicle tariffs. If no direct conversation is reported by the end of May, the probability would shift, but current reporting from multiple outlets confirms Musk’s physical proximity to Trump throughout the visit. The outcome of this market hinges on whether a verifiable exchange—whether a private meeting, a public remark, or a joint statement—is documented before June 1. [CNBC, Mon May 11]
Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($50K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 91c YES.
Smart money positioned NO.
We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | YES | $1.5K | -8% |
YES wallets entered between 99c. At current price 91c, none of the NO holders are profitable vs none of the YES holders are profitable. Both sides have similar profitability — no structural edge.
Polymarket prices YES at 91c while Kalshi has it at 84c — a 7-cent gap. Polymarket traders are more bullish on YES. Our model estimates fair value at 91c.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 91c | $50K |
| Kalshi | 84c | — |
| Our Model | 91c | — |