AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction (3 of 7 models). Outcome went the other way: YES won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 59c |
18%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 78c |
55%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 30c |
65%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | NO | 28c |
70%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | ??? | 50c |
50%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 72c |
60%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 46c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money entered NO at 35c when the market priced this interaction as unlikely, but the 72c YES rally has overrun that thesis. A single underwater contrarian wallet is a weak directional signal — the entry timing suggests early skepticism rather than informed late-stage positioning, and the market has moved decisively against it.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x44c1..c1 | MM | NO | $2.6K | -21% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$2,619 on $2.6K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 72c | $1.3M | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 46c | — | × missed |