AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 3c |
94%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 5c |
82%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 4c |
82%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 18c |
70%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 12c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 6c |
94%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 8c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
All three tracked wallets positioned NO at elevated prices (77c-93c), signaling high-conviction fade of the strike narrative even when market-implied odds were meaningfully higher. Smart money entries this deep against YES suggest structural disbelief in UAE military action by April 30, with the 6c residual reflecting tail-risk pricing rather than directional interest.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x162f..8d | MM | NO | $5.0K | +3% | |
| 0xd48a..90 ★ | MM | NO | $3.3K | +22% | |
| 0x4488..19 ★ | MM | NO | $2.6K | +1% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,606 on $10.9K capital deployed (avg +14.7%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $1.8M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 8c | — | ✓ matched |