AI consensus leaned YES with MODERATE conviction — 4 of 6 models agreed. Direction was issued as HOLD because edge was insufficient at verdict time. Outcome confirmed: YES won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | YES | 98c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 69c |
38%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 88c |
55%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 93c |
75%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | ??? | 65c |
50%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | YES | 90c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 93c |
84%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 85c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money entered at 72c when the market was still pricing meaningful uncertainty, and the position has since validated as Ukrainian re-entry odds hardened toward resolution. The 'Dominant side: NO' label contradicts the tracked wallet's YES conviction — alpha positioning signals YES is the correct read, with the 21c run from entry to 93c reflecting realized directional edge rather than noise.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xd5cc..a4 | MM | YES | $1.1K | -24% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$417 on $1.1K capital deployed (avg +39.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 92c | $424.7K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 85c | — | ✓ matched |