As of October 6, 2026, Polymarket prices “Will US unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?” at 6% YES with $150K traded. 1 tracked wallet holds a position here; the dominant side is NO.
Prediction markets give a 6% probability to: will us unemployment reach at least 5.0% in 2026?.
See which tracked wallets hold this market (entries, size, P&L), the models’ fair value and entry targets — and get an alert within a minute when they trade.
Unlock PRO — $29/mo7/7 models agree on NO, fair value 13c vs market 6c. BUY NO at 6c — models see 7c of upside.
| Model | Says | Fair Value estimated fair price | Confidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| MATH PIN Model | NO | 98c | — |
| MATH Compound Signal | NO | 75c | — |
| AI Claude Analysis | NO | 92c | 76% |
| AI DeepSeek Quant | NO | 93c | 78% |
| AI Grok Contrarian | NO | 78c | 61% |
| AI Gemini Flash | NO | 88c | 75% |
| AI Kimi Macro | NO | 88c | 78% |
7 of 7 models estimate NO fair value below market (75–98c vs 94c). DeepSeek Quant leads with 78% confidence.
Models estimate fair value of NO at 87c — market prices it at 94c. 7-point gap supports YES.
The single tracked wallet is positioned exclusively on NO at 67c, signaling conviction that unemployment will stay below 5.0% in 2026. That entry implies the trader sees the 5% threshold as a tail risk, consistent with the market's 6% YES pricing. With no YES entries from this wallet, there is no smart-money counterweight suggesting an upside surprise.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xeb6f..f0 | MM | NO | $3.6K | +69% |
With YES at 6c, all YES positions are deeply underwater while every NO entry from 67c is in profit, creating a one-sided P&L picture. The absence of profitable YES holders removes any incentive to defend the 6c level, leaving the market vulnerable to further YES decay. NO holders at 67c have a strong cushion and little reason to exit, reinforcing downward pressure on YES.
Polymarket prices YES at 6c with $150K in total volume. Our model estimates fair value at 13c. 7-point gap suggests market may undervalue YES.
| Platform | YES Price | Volume |
|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $150K |
| Our Model | 13c | — |