AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved YES at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | YES | 52c |
4%
|
|
| PIN Model | YES | 73c |
46%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 30c |
40%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | YES | 52c |
55%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 52c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 52c |
75%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 52c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.
Smart money exposure is minimal — one wallet on YES near current price signals tentative interest rather than directional conviction. The absence of NO positioning despite a NO-dominant tape suggests tracked alpha has not validated the bearish move, leaving the 36c level a low-signal zone. Entry at 39c implies fair value is seen near the high-30s, not the mid-30s, so direction skews mildly toward mean-reversion upward absent fresh NO accumulation.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xc021..a8 ★ | MM | YES | $13.3K | +83% | |
| 0xde04..37 | Retail | YES | $6.0K | +127% |
Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$30,163 on $19.3K capital deployed (avg +156.5%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 88c | $734.3K | 100c | |
| AI Consensus | 52c | — | ✓ matched |