AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 5c |
82%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
65%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 6c |
94%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 10c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money positioned NO at 61c — a high-conviction fade taken when the market still gave Cache meaningful odds — and the 90%+ price collapse has fully validated that read. The absence of any tracked YES entries combined with a profitable NO anchor signals directional alignment with the status quo: no Cache addition by June 30, 2026.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xd039..32 | MM | NO | $2.4K | +52% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$1,513 on $2.4K capital deployed (avg +63.9%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 8c | $505.7K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 10c | — | ✓ matched |