AI consensus leaned YES with STRONG conviction (5 of 6 models). Outcome went the other way: NO won.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | YES | 55c |
10%
|
|
| PIN Model | YES | 80c |
60%
|
|
| Compound Signal | YES | 58c |
16%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 22c |
55%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | YES | 64c |
72%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | YES | 64c |
75%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 57c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Two tier-tracked wallets accumulated YES in a tight 43-46c band, signaling deliberate conviction rather than reactive entries. The dominant YES posture with no NO counter-positioning suggests smart money views current 40c as a discount to their fair value, though small sample (n=2) limits signal strength.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xde04..37 | Retail | YES | $6.1K | -16% | |
| 0x6bab..92 ★ | MM | YES | $3.0K | -10% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$9,092 on $9.1K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 38c | $2.4M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 57c | — | × missed |