AI consensus leaned NO with MODERATE conviction — 3 of 5 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 26c |
48%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 8c |
80%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 7c |
93%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 10c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
The lone tracked wallet is positioned decisively NO, entering near 92c and pressing the view that Zelenskyy does not win the 2026 Peace Prize. That entry point signals a high-conviction fade of an unlikely outcome rather than a speculative long-shot bet, aligning with the market's 7c YES pricing. Smart money direction here is unambiguous: NO, with no offsetting YES accumulation to suggest any contrarian repositioning.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x162f..8d | MM | NO | $3.1K | +2% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$274 on $3.1K capital deployed (avg +8.7%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 5c | $935.2K | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 10c | — | ✓ matched |