Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO but the market resolved YES. The verdict did not match the outcome.

Other

Resolved: May 24, 2026 Closed at $1.00 YES Final volume: $99.5K

Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?

Q: How did 'Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2025–26 season?' resolve?

The market resolved YES on May 24, 2026. YES redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Resolved · MAY 24

YES

100c

Market resolved YES at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO (2 of 5 models agreed) but the outcome went the other way.

STRONG RESULT

YES WON 100c

AI verdict was HOLD — no directional call. Market resolved YES at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

0 of 5 Models Agreed: YES — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
PIN Model	NO	2c	96%
Compound Signal	NO	40c	20%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	21c	72%
Gemini Flash	NO	30c	65%
Kimi Macro	NO	34c	66%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 25c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 100c YES / 0c NO.

1 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 1 wallet with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 14c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0xde04..37	Retail	NO	$1.1K	+70%
This Market Entered at 14c → now 50c (+70%), $1.1K on NO Activity · 25 events · Dec 05 → May 22 DatePositionAmountTotal Dec 05BUYNO62+$32$32 Dec 21BUYNO47+$7$31 Jan 01BUYNO39+$22$48 Jan 02BUYNO39+$11$59 Jan 03BUYNO30+$64$110 Jan 04BUYNO26+$3$97 Jan 11BUYNO20+$2$77 Jan 25BUYNO44+$13$182 Feb 11BUYNO46+$117$305 Feb 12BUYNO46+$163$470 Feb 23BUYNO48+$318$813 Apr 19BUYNO66+$13$1,125 Apr 20BUYNO63+$6$1,081 Apr 25BUYNO50+$332$1,183 May 03BUYNO33+$46$839 May 04BUYNO26+$122$780 May 05BUYNO25+$135$881 May 10BUYNO15+$14$543 May 11BUYNO19+$68$742 May 17BUYNO7+$20$314 May 18BUYNO9+$1$384 May 19BUYNO10+$15$445 May 20BUYNO15+$108$763 May 21BUYNO14+$3$723 May 22BUYNO14+$99$822 Realized— Unrealized+$827 Total Profit+$827 Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 398 trades).

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

0% Capital on Winning Side

Tracked alpha wallets held YES at the last snapshot. YES redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: -$1,053 on $1.1K capital deployed (avg -100.0%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

YES positions

0% in profit

NO positions

100% lost

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	34c	$99.5K	100c
AI Consensus	25c	—	× missed

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