AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 5c |
90%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 17c |
66%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 6c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 8c |
85%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 25c |
60%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
70%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 10c |
90%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 11c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money is unanimously positioned NO with entries at 85c, signaling high-conviction conviction that WTI will not breach $115 in April. Single-sided positioning with zero YES tracked exposure reflects structural confidence: oil would need a ~15%+ spike from current levels in compressed time, and tracked wallets see that tail as uninvestable. Direction signal: strong NO, low ambiguity.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x9981..c4 ★ | MM | NO | $1.5K | +6% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$262 on $1.5K capital deployed (avg +17.1%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 10c | $1.8M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 11c | — | ✓ matched |