How did 'Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?' resolve?

The market resolved NO on May 01, 2026. NO redeemed at $1.00 per share.

Was the AI verdict correct?

AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction (6 of 7 models agreed). Outcome matched the consensus direction.

Other

Resolved: May 01, 2026 Closed at $1.00 NO Final volume: $4.0M

Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April?

Resolved · MAY 01

100c

YES

Market resolved NO at $1.00. AI consensus leaned NO — 6 of 7 models agreed with STRONG conviction. Outcome confirmed the consensus direction.

STRONG RESULT

NO WON 100c

AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 6 of 7 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.

Stop Loss Target Final

6 of 6 Models Agreed: NO — Outcome Matched

Model	Said	Fair Value estimated fair price of YES	Confidence
Bayesian Update	NO	3c	94%
PIN Model	NO	2c	96%
Compound Signal	NO	15c	70%
DeepSeek Quant	NO	5c	75%
Gemini Flash	NO	8c	80%
Kimi Macro	NO	6c	94%

Aggregate fair-value estimate: 6c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.

3 Active Wallets on This Market

We tracked 3 wallets with positions above $1K on this market. NO wallets entered between 50c–97c.

Wallet	Category	Side	Amount	P&L
0x9981..c4 ★	MM	NO	$18.7K	+8%
★ Tier-1 Wallet 80%+ accuracy across 291 resolved markets This Market Entered at 88c → now 50c (+8%), $18.7K on NO Track Record 1y on platform · 728 trades · other specialist Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (728) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0x4337..82	MM	NO	$3.1K	-2%
This Market Entered at 97c → now 50c (-2%), $3.1K on NO Track Record 4mo on platform · 658 trades · other specialist Wallet Type Market maker — provides liquidity on both sides. High trade count (658) is standard for automated market making, not directional conviction.
0xfcf2..69	Retail	NO	$1.2K	+91%
This Market Entered at 50c → now 50c (+91%), $1.2K on NO Track Record 27d on platform · 1974 trades · 100% win rate · politics specialist Wallet Type Active retail with decent track record (100% over 1974 trades).

See all 87 tracked wallets → · Learn about copy trading →

100% of Tracked NO Positions Closed in Profit

Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$3,962 on $23.0K capital deployed (avg +17.2%).

Profit/Loss by Side (final)

NO positions

100% in profit

YES positions

0% no exposure

Price History — Polymarket

Platform	Last YES Price	Volume	Final
Polymarket	5c	$4.0M	0c
AI Consensus	6c	—	✓ matched

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