AI consensus leaned NO with STRONG conviction — 7 of 8 models agreed. Outcome confirmed: NO won at $1.00.
| Model | Said | Fair Value estimated fair price of YES | Confidence | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bayesian Update | NO | 4c |
92%
|
|
| PIN Model | NO | 2c |
96%
|
|
| Compound Signal | NO | 16c |
68%
|
|
| Claude Analysis | NO | 5c |
88%
|
|
| DeepSeek Quant | NO | 4c |
82%
|
|
| Grok Contrarian | YES | 20c |
70%
|
|
| Gemini Flash | NO | 15c |
75%
|
|
| Kimi Macro | NO | 8c |
92%
|
Aggregate fair-value estimate: 9c YES. Outcome confirmed: market resolved at 0c YES / $1.00 NO.
Smart money loaded NO in the 75-76c zone, treating sub-$75 WTI as a low-probability tail through April. With 100% of tracked NO wallets in profit and no YES conviction entries, positioning signals a strong directional read that oil holds above the $75 trigger into month-end.
| Wallet | Category | Side | Amount | P&L | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x7c3d..6b | MM | NO | $3.7K | +26% | |
| 0xd48a..90 ★ | MM | NO | $3.2K | +25% |
Tracked alpha wallets held NO at the last snapshot. NO redeemed at $1.00 when the market closed. Combined realized P&L: +$2,272 on $7.0K capital deployed (avg +32.7%).
| Platform | Last YES Price | Volume | Final | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | 6c | $1.3M | 0c | |
| AI Consensus | 9c | — | ✓ matched |