Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April?

Prediction markets put the probability at 8%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (8% YES). Skip to navigation Skip to main content Skip to right column.

What’s Happening

The prediction market assessing whether WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April currently reflects an 8% probability of that scenario occurring, with the vast majority of participants betting against a drop to that level. This low probability comes amid a volatile month for crude prices, driven largely by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. On Sunday, April 19, oil prices surged after Iran again restricted access to the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint for roughly one-fifth of global crude supply, and as a ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran neared expiration. West Texas Intermediate crude jumped 7.5% to trade at $90.17 per barrel by evening, pushing prices well above the $75 threshold and reinforcing the market's bearish outlook on a near-term low. [Yahoo Finance, Apr 19]

The dynamics surrounding WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April are further complicated by a tug-of-war between supply risks and demand-side data. On Thursday, April 23, the Wall Street Journal reported that WTI prices were being shaped by conflicting signals: U.S. crude inventories rose by 1.9 million barrels, sharply diverging from analyst expectations of a draw, which pressured prices lower. However, hopes of renewed U.S.-Iran talks later that week—following Tehran's accusation that Washington broke the ceasefire—introduced the possibility of eased supply disruptions. Goldman Sachs, in a note on April 17, maintained its 2026 average WTI forecast at $78 a barrel, assuming oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain intact, a scenario that would keep prices above the $75 mark. [WSJ, Apr 23]

Looking ahead, the probability of WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $75 in April hinges on whether diplomatic efforts can de-escalate the Strait of Hormuz crisis or if further disruptions will sustain elevated prices. On Tuesday, April 21, oil prices fell over $1 per barrel on expectations that U.S.-Iran peace talks would proceed that week, potentially reopening supply routes and easing the blockade that had sent Brent up 5.6% and WTI up 6.9% the previous day. The Guardian reported on April 20 that Tehran vowed to respond after the USS Spruance fired on an Iranian-flagged cargo ship, underscoring the fragility of the ceasefire. With the month nearing its end, the market's 92% "NO" probability suggests traders see the $75 floor as unlikely, barring a sudden collapse in demand or a rapid resolution to the geopolitical standoff. [Investing.com, Apr 21]

Traded on Polymarket — $1.1M Volume

Active market on Polymarket with $1.1M in total volume. Sufficient liquidity for most position sizes. Currently priced at 8c YES.