Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August?

Prediction markets put the probability at 22%: Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in August. Currently, markets see this as unlikely (22% YES).

What’s Happening

West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures have been trading in a volatile range throughout 2026, with the benchmark repeatedly testing the psychological $100 threshold. On March 12, 2026, WTI settled at $95.73 per barrel, a 9.7% single-day surge, after Iran's new leader declared the Strait of Hormuz would remain closed to shipping, marking the highest close since August 2022. That geopolitical shock, combined with the International Energy Agency's warning that inventories are falling rapidly and Middle Eastern exports are missing, has kept the possibility of WTI crude oil hitting $100 in August firmly on traders' radars. The IEA's executive director, Fatih Birol, stated earlier this month that markets could enter a "red zone" in July-August if supply conditions do not improve, citing summer demand spikes as a key accelerant [OilPrice, May 25].

The most recent price action, however, shows the market is not yet at the $100 level for WTI, even as Brent has already breached it. On July 26, 2026, Brent crude for September delivery gained nearly 7% to settle above $100, driven by renewed Red Sea attacks on commercial vessels, while WTI futures lagged behind. The divergence between the two benchmarks is notable: Brent's premium over WTI has widened due to tighter Atlantic Basin supply, while U.S. production remains relatively robust. Traders on the Multi Commodity Exchange saw crude futures for August delivery climb Rs 477, or nearly 6%, to Rs 8,887 per barrel, reflecting fresh buying interest on fears of Gulf export disruptions [Times of India, Jul 26]. This suggests that while WTI crude oil hitting $100 in August is possible, it would require a further escalation in Middle East tensions or a significant supply shock to close the current gap.

Historical precedent shows that oil price spikes above $100 can be short-lived, which informs the current market calculus. In 2013, U.S. crude surged to an 18-month high in August on Syria strike fears, briefly touching $110 per barrel before collapsing within weeks as the geopolitical premium evaporated [WESH, Mar 10]. The current situation differs in that the Strait of Hormuz closure threat is more concrete, with Iran vowing to keep blocking the waterway that carries roughly 20% of global oil consumption. However, analysts note that the March 2026 spike to $95.73 for WTI failed to hold above $100, and the benchmark has since traded in a $85-$95 range. The key question for August is whether the IEA's warning about a "red zone" materializes, or whether diplomatic efforts to reopen the Strait succeed, which would likely push WTI crude oil hitting $100 in August further out of reach [CNBC, Mar 12].

Traded on Polymarket — $93K Volume

Lower-volume market on Polymarket ($93K). Wider spreads expected — enter with limit orders and be aware of slippage risk. Currently 17c YES.